Alexonomic's Outlook for 2013: South America

Yes, the Brazilians are still the centerpiece of South American economic growth, yet there are competitors arising. While Venezuala faces a period of uncertainty with the potential replacement of Hugo Chavez, Argentina offers a renewed challenge to the Falklands under Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

Alexonomic's Outlook for 2013: Europe

Europe reminds many historians of conditions during the 1930s. Economically depressed countries are embracing extremist political parties with racial divide, riots, and anger as the symptoms. Currently, most of the population is aware of the European debt crisis. Although a serious as the economic crisis is, the side effects of lower economic output can be more serious.

Americans and their Guns

To stray from the Predictions of 2013 series, I did an infographic of the gun control debate raging in the US, along with some statistics. The objectives of Obama gun control rules come plainly from the White House publication on the topic. As one can see, the proposed regulations are quite practical.

Alexonomics' Outlook for 2013: Africa

Egypt has often been the focus of news in Africa as of late. The removal of Mubarak and election of Mohammed Morsi has proven to be an interesting turn of events, but the excitement is far from over. Morsi symbolically removed ties from the Muslim Brotherhood, but that move hardly removes the influence the party has on the President.

A guide to Environmental Economics

Often, articles will be conclusions with a few supporting facts that will often sway the reader. I find this problematic for two reasons. First, the reader does not have the chance to fully understand the topic because no background is given. Secondly, the reader doesn't really have an opportunity to disagree with the writer's conclusion if the reader has little to no knowledge of the topic.

Monday, 28 November 2011

Quick Stock Analysis - Canadian Buys

Well, we're entering an important part of the year. No, not Thanksgiving or Christmas (some of us don't need a reason to drink), but tax season. Yup, 'tis the season to selloff any stocks that aren't doing so well in order to claim a loss and deduct it against your income as a capital loss. No one wants the capital gains loss. After all, its temporary - you  buy it again in January.

With the late tax selloffs beginning to come around soon, stocks have a reason to generally go down. That's adding to the European debt crisis, the American debt crisis, individual State debt crisis', provincial debt crisis', and obviously Obama. Why Obama? Because he is a Muslim. It's true, I got a email that was forwarded 50 times that had its subject in capital letters and looked like it came from a perfectly legitimate source. I mean after all, an organization entitled "The Tea Party" must be full of logical, reasonable people 

Anyways, sarcasm aside, we still have to look at Canadian stocks and potential buying opportunities. Right now, shorting almost any stock temporarily will result in a slight profit. With the Americans about to go round two on debating whether to lift their debt ceiling and the Europeans in complete political disarray resulting in economical catastrophe, the simple conclusion is confidence will keep falling resulting in declining stock prices.
However, there are some stocks I would especially look at for buying. In the following days I will post the stocks on the TSX I would short (plenty of those). Disclosure, I am personally not invested in anything right now, and this is the opinion of a person who still holds a grudge against his 8th grade teacher - so take it with some salt.

Uranium One (UUU): Uranium prices no doubt have taken a hit since the Japanese disaster. UUU was no different, and has plummeted from around $6 a share to almost $2 a share. I have written about Uranium before, and will admit being wrong in the past. I cannot believe that the nuclear energy has been hit so hard from the Japan crisis. Nuclear energy is still the world's best energy source in terms of cost, efficiency, and pollution - and the negative PR against it is simply that - negative PR.  To view more information on the industry as a whole, check my post back in June. Specifically, UUU is below book value. Liquid assets have doubled from 2009 to 2010, but have fallen from a high in September of 2010. This may be explained by an increase in A/R's, along with increases in inventory and increased investments in property and plant.  UUU is 6th in the world in terms of uranium, and is planning large expansion. Very well diversified with mines in Kazakhstan, Australia, Wyoming - UUU is heading to produce around 10.5 million pounds of uranium at a cost of $18 a pound, and once their new field in the Mkuju River. The deal there is a bit more complicated, but Uranium will be produced at $22 a pound. If this all occurs, UUU will be ahead of Cameco producing 26 million pounds of Uranium per year. Right now, spot price of Uranium is around $55 a pound, falling from around $70. With winter approaching Japan - the 43 offline reactors will begin to startup to address the energy shortage. Also, India and China's nuclear expansion is expected to continue. UUU will be there to provide the fuel.

Target: $4.00
Recommendation: Long term hold, 2 years
Bottomed? No, nothing has bottomed yet. Buy below $2

I will post more stocks as time progresses from the TSX that I feel are buys. 

Dear Leader? Try Delirious Leader.

I haven't posted in a while due to life getting a bit busy. However, I wish to say a few things concerning the major world problems. Greece should not default, the chain reaction would be cataclysmic. Italy is actually not that bad despite facing unsustainable 7% bond yields, while Spain is actually in worse shape. New alliances by the Americans and Canadians in Asia are good for diversification of their export/import portfolio. China's internal banking crisis will come to light in 2012, as my world predictions for 2012 will come out soon enough.

Enough of that, I decided to post a letter from Kim Il Sung (he's dead - probably had a ghost writer - pun intended) , written for the Economist in the World in 2012 edition. If you have a chance, pick up the magazine, it's a great read. This letter describes the insanity that this nation is governed by, and truly shows how scary it would be should this nation acquire a nuclear bomb.

One hundred years after my birth, I, Kim Il Sung, founding deity of North Korea, will descend from heaven. 

That is only one prediction that can be made with cast - iron certainty about what I proudly proclaim is the world's most unpredictable country. On the 100th anniversary of my birth, April 15th 2012, the whole world will hear nothing but lies about the peace-loving people of North Korea. 

Your organs of capitalist propaganda will mock the goosesteps, the Nazi - like choreography, and the sickly flowers., Kimilsungia, named in my honour. They will never mention what a pure-hearted people my beloved children are. As their hollow bellies attest, they have fasted in mourning almost incessantly since my passing away in 1994 - with hardly a whisper of complaint. They bend their broken backs out of love for my dear son, Kim Jon Il, so that he no longer needs to wear platform shoes to see over their heads. They rejoice as he erects monument after monument to my memory, instead of wasting it on the fripperies of food. On my 70th birthday they built an Arch of Triumph, bigger than the French one, with a brick for everyday day of my life. In 2012 they will finish the 100 foot Ryugyong Hotel in Pyongyang in honour of me. Who cares if none of them can afford to stay there: empty, it will make a lovely missile sole to impress the neighbours. 

Next year will be , as my dear son has promised, the year when North Korea becomes a strong and prosperous nation. Strong, of course, we already are. We have outlived Soviet Russia, Mao Zedong in China, and deadly departed comrades such as Nicolae Ceausecu of Romania. Superpowers continue to bow to our whims, promising aid and investment even when we threaten to nuke our beloved South Korean brethren to hell and back. Prosperity may take a little longer, it is not for nothing that people, looking at our tragically torn peninsula, talk about "One country, two planets". But if our army is strong enough to have a million guns, who needs butter? 

The only thing that troubles me, as I gaze down from my mushroom cloud on Mount Paektu, is ensuring my legacy lives on. Not everyone can come up with an ideology based on self - delusion, Chisten it with Juche, and tell people that it's about self-reliance - self-reliance, that is,  on all those capitalist dogs we hoodwink for aid. Not everyone would could fashion a brand of ethno fascist, neo -Stalinist, theocratic, murderous totalitarianism and yet portry himself as a father molly - coddling his devoted children. 

My son, sadly, has not managed to step into my shoes. He prefers spending time with ostriches, his fashion sense is other-worldly, and with his taste for lobster and red wine it is no wonder gout is killing him. So, in good theocratic tradition, 2012 calls for some divine intervention. I will therefore descend from heaven, and be reborn in the shape of my pudgy grandson - Kim Jong Un. 

You don't believe me? It is not for nothing that your newspaper has already christened him the Chosun Un. 

Satire at it`s finest.