Alexonomics Outlook for 2013: North America

Some of the same words used by this blog to describe the Middle East can be used to describe the United States of America. Incessant wrangling would certainly be a well fitting pair of words to describe the American Congress at this point in time.

The United States has the largest economy in the world, its GDP more than double that of the second place China. Compared to January, the unemployment rate has fallen from 7.9 to 7.6, while the average hourly earnings have increased from 23.78 to 24.01, as reported by the American Bureau of Labour Statistics. Positive news has been reported lately, specifically in the corporate world. After tax corporate earnings were almost $2 trillion in 2012 led by ExxonMobil, Apple and Chevron. In addition, the banking and housing industries have both rebounded as home sales went to levels not seen since 2006 while bank failures have dropped to 51 in 2012 which is a third of what it was in 2010.  An opinion piece in the Telegraph recently stated the US economy has soared, which should continue as the US is home to 47% of innovators.  This trend should continue as the United States is home to 19 of the world's top 25 Universities, and despite demographic worries, Wells Fargo states that the US will have its percentage of young working people at 42% between 2000 and 2050 compared to China, Europe and Japanese declines anywhere between 10% and 40%. In addition, only 25.4% of Americans will be 60 or older by 2040, lower than projections in Germany, China, and Japan.

In addition to this, the United States is on the road to energy independence through the extraction of natural gas, now the world's largest producer. The natural gas explosion has been fuelled through the chemical process  of fracking, which is an unconventional form of extraction. Basically, natural gas is trapped by pumping fluid into a wellbore causing shale rock strata to create a crack, or fracture. The crack seals and traps the gas for easier extraction as the oil and gas flows to the surface.

Although the fracking industry is estimated to hold around 1.7 million jobs and projected to create a million more, there is a serious debate on whether the activity should be allowed. Fracking began with the the passage of legislation known as the Halliburton Loophole, which exempted hydraulic fracking from any regulatory supervision by the EPA under the Safe Drinking Water Act. This was a result of Dick Cheney, who used to work at Halliburton, being appointed to the Energy Task Force and lobbying for lessened regulation on the industry. This law was passed in 2005, even after a 2004 EPA report stated "fracturing fluids may pose a threat to drinking water long after drilling operations are completed".

The anti-fracking crowd's concerns should not be ignored. Water is essential to fracking, as one well uses around 3 to 8 million gallons of water during the lifetime of the well. Besides the heavy water usage, toxic chemicals such as antifreeze, hydraulic acid, are pumped underground and as some anti-fracking groups claim - leak into the water supply. These claims are heavily disputed by natural gas producers. The fluid that is pumped into the ground is isolated by steel and concrete from the earth, as well as the fracking takes place well below groundwater as the fracking takes place 2500-3000 meters below the surface compared to groundwater - which is 300 meters at most below the surface.

Most problematic about fracking is the massive amount of water used. Of the water used, only 60% can be used again for fracking fluid, and eventually is too polluted to use at all. Additionally, a report released by the Democrat party stated that 750 chemicals used in the process, 29 are carcinogens while an amount of fracking fluid remains in the ground after the well is abandoned. 

This is what the anti-fracking groups claim occurs.

However, Mr. Obama has never fully addressed his issue, echoing supporter's of fracking sentiments that there is 100 years worth of shale gas ready for exploitation. This statement most likely is not true, as the gas wells requiring the least capital have already been exploited and to extract the remaining reserves most likely will cost more than its worth. This is exemplified by Chesapeake which has been borrowing to fund its rather unprofitable ventures.

Wall Street begs to differ. Oil production in the US hasn't been this high since 1992, and has reduced reliance on OPEC as the United States has cut their oil imports by 37% from January 2008. Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup stated that OPEC will find its survival challenging with the US competition.

With the heat of the debate increasing, the topic of fracking will continue to make headlines over the next year as the United States battles between energy independence and potential pollution of their water supply.

Although Americans are slowly recovering from the recession, many are not happy about their gridlocked political situation. The Republicans and Democrats simply refuse to work together, causing the markets to react sternly in the form of debt downgrades. This issue has been widely talked about not just on this blog, but on many different media outlets. For America to begin to have a functioning government, the Republicans and Democrats must find common ground and learn to compromise for the betterment of the United States, not their own political party ambitions. Already, New Jersey governor Chris Christie has recognized this fact and has begun to offer an olive branch to the other side. Hopefully, this mentality will be copied or else America will continue to rack up budget deficits while increasing their $16 trillion debt.

Finance Minister Flaherty of Canada is looking
towards a balanced budget by 2015.

Contrarily, America's neighbours to the north have had better success in debt management, at least federally. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has a plan to balance the budget by 2015, and so far looks on path to complete the goal. Thus far, Canada has been looked at by the rest of the world as a model for keeping a strong economic course during the global recession spurred by the financial crisis in 2008/2009. Comparatively, Canadian economic confidence is higher than the Americans and British according to an Angus Reid Opinion poll.  The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) has raised their estimate of Canadian growth outlook to 1.9% for 2013 and 2.9% in 2014 thanks to the improvement of corporate balance sheets along with stronger trade. This is in agreement with the IMF, which has upgraded Canadian growth to 1.7% in 2013, but states 2014 growth will be 2.2%, well under the RBC forecast.

However, problems still lie on the horizon for the Canadian economy. It was only in April that many more negative indicators reared their ugly heads, as Statistics Canada reported that building permits for residential construction fell by 7.2% along with slow job creation and predicted higher unemployment.  It was only in January that former Bank Of Canada governor Mark Carney admitted along with Prime Minister Stephen Harper that government economic forecasts were too rosy.  The blame was placed on slow global economic growth along with a cooling housing market. Additionally, Scandinavian countries replaced Canada as the model for growth along with Australia and New Zealand. 

Mr. Stephen Poloz, the new Bank of Canada governor stated that Canada had four economic hurdles in their recent report.  First, stronger American private demand such as the recovery in the American housing market which could create stronger residential investment and higher interest rates, which may force Canada to reciprocate by raising their own interest rates. In addition to external threats, slow BRIC growth in nations such as China and Brazil will have an influence to Canada, most likely through weaker export sales and lower commodity prices. Europe most likely will continue to struggle economically, as the largest threat is contagion to the financial markets spreading. Physically, Canada's risk to European debt is little, but theoretically the risk of fear spreading could cause great damage in borrowing markets. Lastly, domestic debt continues to remain high. Although lower than previous years, Canadian household debt continues to be a problem that risks the Canadian Me\economy.

One economic event that shall be watched is the Keystone XL pipeline, which TransCanada Corp's CEO Russ Girling stated that it is unlikely construction will begin by 2015 as the company awaits a decision from the US government.  The pipeline is expected to cost around $5.3 billion and take two years to build.

Politically, Canada is relatively stable under the Conservative government led by Stephen Harper. Elections will not occur until 2015. Although some scandals have occurred and questions raised about different expenditures such as the F-35, the conservative government of Canada has set a relatively steady course rejecting rash decisions and focusing on slow thoughtful decisions. Politically, Canada is almost the opposite of the US as the majority government makes decisions that can be implemented. Although the liberals led under the popular Justin Trudeau and NDP argue differently, they will have to wait until 2015 to prove differently.

To the south of the United States lies Mexico, a country grappling with not fulfilling expected growth rates. GDP grew .8% in the first quarter of 2013, less than the 1.1% analyst estimate. Home building has fallen in Mexico while Mexican public companies reported less than expected sales in the first quarter of 2013. Although the OECD reported at the end of 2012 that the Mexican economy will grow 3.3% in 2013 slowing from 2012's growth of 3.8%, politics may prevent this.

Can Mexico enforce reform?

While American internal growth may hurt Mexican exports to the United States, President Enrique Pena Nieto has attempted to earn favour with the Obama administration by putting through legislation that would increase bank lending and competitive behaviour. This may be tough, as Mr. Pena's own ruling party is not exempt from mischievous action. Additionally, Mr. Pena plans on reforming telecommunications, education, and energy; industries that will oppose any sort of change. Exemplifying this is the PRI oil workers union, which means Mr. Pena will come within confrontation of his own party. Mexico long has had problems with governmental corruption and badly needed reform. The question is how possible the reform will actually be when it comes to implementation.

In central America, many analysts are calling Panama the Singapore of the Americas. With the IMF expecting growth averaged out around 6% over 5 years, it is known how large a part the originally American built canal is playing in the growth of Panama. However, the Panama government's business friendly rules have created foreign investment worth around 9% of total GDP. An expansion worth $6 billion of the canal will be complete in 2014. However, wealth does not solve problems. Education and average income of many aboriginal populations both remain low. Additionally, President Martinelli has been accused of meddling with the courts while asking for American help in spying on democratic opponents. The most problematic hazard of Panama is that the Panama Canal Authority could be nationalized for cash, as cautioned by the story of Pemex in Mexico.

This blog has only mentioned four countries, and could mention other nations such as Cuba or Nicaragua. However, due to the fact that this is a continental report, the more outstanding nations in each continent are mentioned. Below, the following should be looked at in the future within the boundaries of North America:

• American political gridlock will have to end for the United States to have a successful existence. The country is not in as bad financial shape as many have suggested, but the continual disregard for compromise by both Republicans and Democrats could prove to be detrimental. 
• The Keystone XL pipeline will become an increasingly important issue as Canada looks to extend their energy outlook. 
• With regards to fracking, it will become a more debated topic not just in America and Canada, but across the world. The question of whether the environmental challenges that may occur because of hydraulic fracking are worth extraction of natural gas to achieve energy independence by the United States will become one of the larger questions America asks in the future.
• Panama will extend their canal successfully and become a more important nation in international commerce as continual cross ocean trade continues. 

North America will continue to lead the world in both innovation and economic growth, but only if the United States' government decides to create a bipartisan relationship between the Republicans and Democrats. It is hopeful this occurs, as no other country is prepared to take over the role of global hegemony from the United States. 

Read More

Alexonomics Outlook for 2013: The Middle East

Continual controversy, timeless dispute, uninterrupted dissension, endless altercations, incessant wrangling.

The IMF report can be found here.

All these two word utterances could describe the Middle East. However, the Middle Eastern economy still continues, and offers growth opportunities in 2013 and beyond. Although many Middle Eastern countries have brought in large amounts of wealth from oil exports, the failure of properly investing in infrastructure and institutions have led to stunted economic growth.

There are few countries in the region that have broken the aforementioned trend. One of these countries is Israel, where growth has been relatively unaffected by the financial crisis of 2008, as the OECD predicts 2.9% growth in 2013 with 3.9% growth in 2014, while HSBC pegged Israel's 2013 growth at 3.3%, closer to the Israeli government's own prediction of 3.5%. Standard and Poor's stated that “the Israeli economy continues to generate solid economic growth" while keeping their credit rating at an envious A+, while Moody's kept their credit rating of Israel at A1. 

The bond rating agencies and positive growth predictions are well founded. Israel has a GDP of $250 billion, or around $32000 per capita while their Debt/GDP ratio is below the OECD average of 78%. One of the leading reasons for the country's growth is their technology industry, which recently added Lockheed Martin to the many companies in the sector. A 2011 study by Ethosia estimated that the Israel tech industry employs almost 200 000, with that number most likely currently higher. Israel Aerospace Industries is the largest tech employer, with two defense companies follows (Elbit Systems and Rafael Advanced Systems), which HP and Intil both have more than 5000 employees, and IBM employing around 2000. Software companies lead the way, while hardware, Internet and telecommunication companies all have flourished. Additionally, it should be recognized that women occupy almost 40% of  tech positions, a rare statistic for a Middle Eastern country. 

To pinpoint a few interesting developments in Israel's tech valley was President Obama, who met with 7 different startups. One company created an exoskeleten suit that allowed a paraplegic to walk around a room while another company pitched a snake like device with a camera attached that could potentially find humans quicker in disaster zones.  The Israeli Tech industry is living up to its nickname, the Silicon Wadi, as it continues to grow. 

The future may be brighter for Israel not just economically, but geopolitically as well. With Iranian elections ending with the election of Mr. Hassan Rouhani, who has declared that Iran "will also reconcile with the world" and plans on seeking "constructive interaction with the world". Israel is not convinced, as Prime Minister Netanyahu has been cautious if not negative about Mr. Ahmadinejad's replacement. An opinionated article in the Jerusalem Post rejected the notion that Mr. Rouhani is a moderate, stating that "Hassan Rouhani is a cunning terrorist mastermind", who has been quoted naming Israel as a terrorist state and Hezbollah a legitimate political entity. 

However, despite the negativity surrounding Rouhani, there are some good signs. Mr. Rouhani has said he will attempt to end infighting between the legislative and executive branches of government, calling for more cooperation to resolve the issues surrounding Iran. The call for cooperation is well backed by precedent, as Mr. Rouhani has been noted for building relationships between different Iranian political factions. In addition to this, Mr. Rouhani has called for more freedom for the Iranian people in terms of internet access, more freedom for journalists , and less interference from police and clergy members in personal lives of Iranian citizens. 

This blog has covered Iranian issues before, going through the history of the country to note the reason behind tensions with the West and also how the current sanctions from the West have created economic problems such as inflation. In 2012 the Iranian economy contracted almost a full percentage point and 2013 saw additional contraction of 1.3%, while some analysts have pegged inflation at 25%. Besides Western sanctions reacting to the nuclear stalemate that have cut crude oil production to less than half of peak produiction, Mr. Ahmadinejad attempted to save the Iranian government $100 billion by ending subsidizations of gas, wheat, rice and other staple commodities which created obviously higher prices. 

The economic problems will be the chief concern for Mr. Rouhani when he officially takes on the Presidency.  With 14% unemployment, Mr. Rouhani has admitted that improving Iran's lacklustre economic performance will take time.  This is well known fact to most Iranians as a businessman stated that the "supermarkets will soon look like they did in the war years. The colour of the shelves is fading. Foreign products are disappearing". This is almost a direct result of the subsidization cuts, which has hurt the lower and middle class. Already, Iran's parliament has discussed bringing the subsidization policies back. In addition to this, the subsidization of fuel was key to the manufacturing industry, which has been hurt with energy bills two or three times the usual cost. It is also interesting to note that Iran has stated India can use rupees to pay for an outstanding $1.53 billion debt in oil.. 

With Israel calling for increased sanctions and not ruling out a military option, Mr. Rouhani will face an immense challenge attempting to fix the Iranian economy. External geopolitical pressures over Iran's nuclear program will likely be the determinant of internal economic growth. Contrarily, neighbouring Iraq is painting a different picture of their future. Although violence has been getting worse as the UN stated almost 700 Iraq's were killed in May 2013 alone, some solid signs of economic improvement have occurred in Iraq. 

The main challenge for the Middle East is curbing violence.

Citigroup has launched a physical presence in the country looking to dip their toes into oil profits. Although the country still has violent problems along with government corruption, the economy did jump 8.4% in 2012 and is reported by the IMF to improve 9% in 2013. Although this most likely can be attributed to the large amount of oil produced, other signs are pointing to a positive business environment. Iraq's credit is 9% of GDP compared to 55% average to the middle east. Banks are attracted to the lending rates of around 12%, and the demand for physical expansion as there is only one ATM for every 100 000 Iraqi's and 900 bank branches in the whole of Iraq. Chapter Seven restrictions which did not allow the country to deal with all the countries of the world, will be lifted. Chapter Seven sanctions caused all Iraqi assets in international banks to be frozen. 

Obviously, the major risk for foreign investment is violence. However, this risk can be mitigated as over 90% of violence occurs in seven of the 18 provinces. The other problem is corruption, as the country has been compared with North Korea and Afghanistan in terms of corruption. It is noticeable that these problems are relatively non-existent in Kurdish northern Iraq. Kurdistan has raised per capita incomes while keeping peace and has discovered oil reserves around 45 billion barrels. It is possible that Kurdish oil production will reach a million barrels per day by 2015. Constant talk of independence and squabbles with Baghdad are the only problems for the province, which do have legitimate chance of sparking into a conflict.  

Afghanistan has responded similarly after American invasion. The World Bank has reported that 2012 saw 11% growth in Afghanistan, due to an exceptionally good harvest. This slowed inflation and Afghanistan is almost at food self sufficiency. However, the country faces momentous security concerns with the Americans vacating the country and the constant threat of the Taliban regaining control of the country through violent means. Elections in 2014 will most likely be accompanied by violence as Mr. Karzai is constitutionally barred from entering a third term in office. It is recognized that the Afghan National Security Forces is quite competent and has the ability to control the major cities and protect citizens against insurgency due to the enriched training received by NATO forces. For now, Afghanistan must concentrate on creating a more peaceful country by mitigating the Taliban threat.
Peace is not a term used much in Syria right now. The economy is the not exactly a major concern for Syria right now, as a violent multi faction civil war has caused The Economist to entitle an article on Syria "The death of a country".  The Arab Spring protestors were attacked by the Assad regime with tanks, which sparked the conflict. As jihadists enter the country, it is hard to differentiate the different sides to the conflict. Economically, a Syrian economist predicted a decline by 10-20% in 2011 GDP while the Syrian pound has fallen from 50 pounds to the dollar to more than 200. Prices are rising while Syrian currency is almost worthless. In 2012 foreign trade fell by 97% with GDP dropping 30% in 2012 and another 10% most likely in 2013.  

Syria's economic problems can be associated with the civil war, a war in which the world has suspected chemical weapons being used while millions are displaced. Personal stories such as a young 14 year old being brutally assaulted and murdered for making a small joke have horrified the world, which has caused the United States to take notice. While the US wishes to enforce a no fly zone, the Russians continue to supply the Syrian government with weaponry advocating for no involvement from the rest of the world. 

Even as the opposition political group elects a new leader Ahmad Jarba, there is little belief that this conflict will end soon. Mr. Assad is too strong to simply lose the war, but too weak to defeat the many different types of rebels. Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, the Taliban all have members in Syria, along with other rebels with different beliefs. Disunity of the rebel forces will ultimately extend the violence in the country, and most likely increased concern by the international community could cause intervention. 

No stranger to international attention is Saudi Arabia, which recently made headlines after banning a man from an event for being reportedly too handsome. As the second half of 2013 looms, Saudi growth has become more moderate. A large stimulus package given by the Saudi regime stopped any Arab Spring action, as the economy is expected to grow around 4% in 2013. The Arab Spring has been profitable for the Saudi's, as the end in Libyan production along with turmoil in oil markets couple with sanctions in Iran have increased demand for Saudi crude. 

Policy wise, the government has created a program which penalizes companies should they decide not to hire enough Saudi nationals. Construction fueled by the stimulus should accelerate growth, as economically the country is doing fine. The greatest complaint is the lack of woman's rights in the country, which is slowly being liberalized, admittedly at a snail's pace. The largest concern is succession, as there is controversy and speculation on who will rule the thrown when King Abdullah ends his reign. 

There are many more countries that can be talked about in the Middle East, such as the rise of Qatar or Kuwait.  The main issues surrounding the Middle East have been covered in this article, which give rise to the following assertions: 

• Israel and Iran will enter into a new uneasy and suspicious relationship as Mr. Rouhani enters the Presidency. Iran will seek to end their economic strife which most likely will cause some latitude in the nuclear talks, hopefully stagnating any military option in the region. 
• Iraqi growth will surprise the world as sectarian violence becomes less common in a majority of the country and more international corporations decide to test the Iraqi economic markets to profit off of oil revenues. 
• Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia will see increased scrutiny on who will take over from their respective leaders, King Abdullah and Mr. Karzai. Election in Afghanistan most likely will be fraught with violence while internal politics will govern the succession of the Saudi King.

Economically, Israel most likely is the safest bet in the region as the country offers the most freedom and security in the region. External threats are problematic, but none can doubt the economic opportunity in the country. Overall, Middle Eastern violence has been sensationalized by the media which is quite unfortunate as there are many other issues to look at besides car bombings. Hopefully, the world will realize there is opportunity in the Middle East as it is filled with people looking for a peaceful existence, like the rest of the world. 

Read More

Renewing the Space Race

Captain James Kirk of the Starship Enterprise flies around the Universe with the mandate to boldly go where no man has gone before.

It may be fiction, but reality is slowly approaching the final frontier.

Space has often been one of mystery for mankind, with some civilizations worshiping the heavenly bodies in our solar system while others such as Copernicus and Galileo have studied it. Attitudes were high when the United States landed a man on the moon, but ever since then little has been done. However, slowly the modern world seems to be becoming more excited about the prospects of exploring space.

With excitement arising from news such as Curiosity the Mars rover conducting experiments on the red planet indicating that the planet was friendly to simple microbial life forms ages ago, or Voyager 1 becoming the first man-made object to leave the solar system, the public has again become friendlier towards space exploration.

Maybe one day. Although warp drive is being worked on by NASA.

Most recently the hype was centering on Mars One, a project that intends to install the first human settlement on Mars by 2023 and has asked for applications from anyone to be part of the team. Already 78 000 individuals have completed the initial part of the application process. Most obvious is the question of the feasibility of the mission, which the organization has prepared a less than remarkable answer to. Generally, the Mars One project states that they will require a Launcher, a Lander, a Transit Vehicle on Mars, a Supply and Living Unit and a Life Support Unit while also developing a Mars Suit. However, no specifics have been given.

While Mars One grapples with the idea of colonizing the large red planet, private space companies are arising. The most popular one has been SpaceX, which signed an agreement with NASA to deliver supplies to the International Space Station. While the media has been focusing on SpaceX, other companies are developing new intriguing spaceships such as Virgin’s SpaceShipTwo while Blue Origin led by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is developing the Space Vehicle. Bigelow Aerospace’s goal is to create habitats in space, and already has two prototypes in orbit. However, these companies ambitions pale in comparison to Golden Spike Corporation, which is offering a trip to the moon, for $500 million a ticket.

With private industry joining the space race, the world of Captain James Kirk may become a reality sooner rather than later. 

Read More

Idle Hands in Iraq

Violence, death, and blood being shed are all occurring in a country in the Middle East.

No, we’re not talking about Syria.

Although Syria has been popularized in the media due to their civil war, Iraq has experienced growing violence as April has the highest fatality count by sectarian violence since 2008. In response, Baghdad has restricted 10 television channels accusing them of promoting violence. One of the channels blocked was Al Jazeera, a news channel.

Since the Americans left Iraq, old tensions between the Sunni and Shia Muslims have returned along with rivalries with the Kurds have erupted into violence. Most of the western world might wonder why the Sunnis and Shiites hate each other so much, as they belong to the same religious umbrella – Islam.

Historically, Sunnis believe themselves to be the keepers of the truth faith of Islam, as the word Sunni derives from “Sunnah” meaning customary practices. Most of the Islamic world identifies themselves as Sunni, as 90% of the 1.4 billion Muslims in the world would check off Sunni to identify themselves. The minority Shiites occupy 89% of Iran’s population, with scattered communities across the Middle East. Believed to have been descended from Muhammad’s daughter Fatima, and son in law Ali, the Shiites were followers of Ali until he was assassinated. The Shiites continued to follow Hussein, who they believed to be the third Imam, but were forced to migrate to Iraq by the Ummayad dynasty, who controlled the Islamic empire at the time and identified themselves as Sunni. Hussein was later killed by the Ummayads, which caused the large split and dissension between the groups. Ashoura marks the death of Hussein, celebrated by Shiites through self mutilation.

Additionally, the spiritual difference between the Shiites and Sunnis simply is that the Sunnis do not believe in a form of sainthood, while the Shiites believe that some leaders are appointed by God and are free of sin. Additionally, Shiites believe that Mahdi will be Muhammad al Mahdi who was last seen in 874, while Sunni’s believe the Mahdi will be named Muhammad, and be a descendent of Muhammad.  

As the modern age turned the world into a much smaller place, Shiites and Sunni’s rivalry was renewed as a Kuwaiti Sheikh stated that Shiites were “the world’s biggest display of heathens and idolatry” while al Zarqawi (former leader of al – Qaeda) stated that the Shiites were a larger enemy than the Americans. Hezbollah, interestingly enough is Shia, while al Qaeda is Sunni. Thus one can see that not all Islamic militant groups are alike, and would most likely not unify due to their religious differences.

Zarqawi, not a fan of Americans, and Shias. 

It is important to understand the history between the groups to properly look at the violence in proper context. Iraq is led by a Shiite government, and have reportedly tried to stop sectarian violence by restraining their own Shiite militias. This is opposing to Sunni opinion, as some have said they face discrimination as the government ties Sunni believes with terrorist activity. One opinion is of SOS Iraq coordinator Dirk Adriaensens stating that the government is to blame.

“After ten years of occupation there are still no basic services. People are randomly arrested, locked up without charge, tortured, women, children and men are being raped. The talk about sectarianism is wrong. These are not sectarian protests. These are protests against the unbearable situation for the Iraqi people. There is poverty, there is unemployment, there is no healthcare, and the education system has collapsed.”

It is most likely these reason stated by Mr. Adriaensens that have caused violence. With little hope for a better future, idle hands are the devils workshop may be the best idiom to describe the violence in Iraq. 

Read More

Pakistani Pessimism

Three cheers for democracy.

At least this has been the general reaction from the international community. It is appropriate, as the election in Pakistan marks the first time that a successful transition between civilian governments has taken place without military intervention.

India, long wary of the Pakistani military, has expressed excitement over the elections. The excitement may be misplaced, as newly elected Nawaz Sharif was the leader of Pakistan during the Kargil War which saw 700 Indians killed, while 1600 Pakistanis perished. However, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh looks to the future after extending his “congratulations to Mr. Nawaz Sharif and his party for their emphatic victory in Pakistan’s elections,” and invited Sharif to visit India. 

Mr. Sharif has far more urgent problems than dealing with the Kashmir region and Indian politics. As this blog has stated before, Pakistan has urgent education, infrastructure needs while also dealing with corruptions and religious zealots. Historically, Mr. Sharif was a conservative when it came to religious issues as he established Shariat Ordinance and asked the Ministry of Religion to recommend the steps needed to be taken for the Islamization of Pakistan.

Can religious conservatism and economic freedom mix?
This man attempts to find out.

In terms of the economy, Mr. Sharif is a staunch believer in the private sector, reflected in the large increase the Karachi stock market after his election. During his previous terms, Sharif created the privatization program which allowed a nuclear policy, as well as privatizing several industries while taking credit for building the largest superhighway in Pakistan. Large projects such as the Ghazie-Barotah Hydropower plant were meant to stimulate the economy. However, at the end of Sharif’s second term foreign debt and inflation were at an all time high while the IMF (International Monetary Fund) suspended aid as they demanded that Pakistani finances be sorted out.

Mr. Sharif stated to international media that he would be inviting Mr. Singh to Pakistan, while also stating that his opponent Mr. Imran Khan had little to complain about. Of course, Imran Khan is a former famous cricketer captaining the international team from 1971 till 1992. Promising to crack down on corruption, end following the United State’s war on terror and hanging the killers of Benazir Bhutto,  he urged change even while lying in a hospital in Lahore. He wished “to transfer power to the common people” and asked for support.

It is not without warrant to state that Mr. Sharif is more of the same in Pakistan, as Mr. Sharif is not new to power or new to allegations of corruption himself. The actions Mr. Sharif takes will be more important to watch rather than how he attained his power, and will be not only closely watched by the international community, but also by his own military and opposition.

Pakistan has had internal problems for decades now. It is up to Mr. Sharif to provide solutions. 

Read More

A Qatari Quibble

A small peninsula in the Middle East is quickly attempting to rebrand itself as a more liberal, business minded country with progressive policies.

It is for a good reason.

Qatar has been seen for a long time as a similar nation to Saudi Arabia by the international community, as the nation is not distinct in language, culture, religion or ethnicity. This all changed when the Saudis could not defend Qatar in the Gulf War, which resulted in Qatar seeking American assistance to alleviate their security concerns.  In return for allowing the American military base installations, hundreds of Qatari students began to study in the United States; one such place was Northwestern University. A student of the University named Usama Hamed recently videotaped a part of the Villaggio Mall burning down in the capital city of Doha. The fire killed 19 people, and the video that Hamed recorded received around 200 000 views in less than four hours on YouTube.

The wealth of Qatar.

As a journalist student, Hamed visited the site two days later being curious of the beginnings of the fire. Instead of being allowed to continue his investigation or simply being turned down from viewing the site, Hamed was arrested and spent 10 nights in jail. He was then let go on bail after signing a document stating he could not leave the country, and if he attempted he would be placed in jail.

Hamed’s experience is one of a continual problem in Qatar, as media is relatively suppressed in the country. Although 98% of voters in a constitutional referendum voted to guarantee the freedom of the press in 2003, oldpress law continues to govern the nation. Provisions in the law such as preventing the critique of the Emir, or prohibiting the publishing of any printed matter that could harm the reputation of an individual can be described as anything but progressive. Journalists in the country do not wish to test the law, and therefore will not even print the name of a person who is convicted of a crime due.

As Qatar’s $15.5 billion airport is being constructed in preparation for the World Cup in 2022, the nation will need to adjust their antiquated press laws when the international spotlight is on the small Arabic peninsula. 

Read More